How the score works: Liiga

Every match in Liiga gets a number from 0 to 100 before it starts, from seven inputs in six weighted terms. It becomes a pick at 40. Afterwards a spoiler-free verdict says whether it was worth watching. The numbers on this page are read from the configuration the pipeline runs on. The wording around them is written by hand, so if the two disagree, the numbers are right and we want to hear about it.

The six terms

Closeness

Hockey is judged home against away with the regulation draw split in half, because overtime follows and is close to a coin flip. The probability is the consensus of several bookmakers with their margin removed. Before a line is posted it comes from the two teams' points per game, pulled towards the league average early in the season, with home ice worth about four percentage points of win probability. Closeness is 4p(1−p) on that two-way number. A coin flip scores 1, a 90% favourite 0.36.

Quality

Strength is points per game in the league table, mapped onto 0 to 1 up to 2.4, and pulled towards the league average in the first weeks, so three wins from three do not read as dominance. Quality is 60% the average of the two and 40% the weaker team.

Stakes

Each position in the table carries a weight for what it decides (playoff, relegation): places 1–6 weigh 1; places 7–10 weigh 0.5; places 17–17 weigh 0.8. Stakes are 50% the average of the two weights, 30% their product (so it rises when both sides have something to lose) and 20% how far the season has run. A promotion or relegation play-off scores at least 0.9, because it decides a season on its own.

Rivalry

Rivalry is a hand-kept table of 17 pairs in Liiga. Each pair has a weight between 0.3 and 1.5: we call 1.5 marquee, 1.0 to 1.4 established and anything lower minor (3 marquee, 12 minor). The signal is the weight divided by 1.5, so a marquee rivalry scores 1 and a 0.5 rivalry a third. See the map and tell us what is missing.

Pace

Pace is the expected total, from the over/under line when there is one, else from the two teams' scoring and conceding rates, mapped from 4.5 goals (0) to 7.5 (1). With neither, pace is 0.4.

Form and spice

Form is the share of points from each team's last five, averaged. Upset spice is 1 when a team whose table place decides something (zone weight 0.8 or more) is priced under 45% to win, read from the market only, never from the rating estimate.

The verdict

After the game the verdict comes from the goal timeline, because we have no win-probability series for Liiga. Each goal adds 0.35, each lead change 1.5, each equaliser 1.0, each goal from the 55th minute 0.8, each overtime goal 0.6, each goal of a comeback 1.5, and a one-sided finish takes one away. Overtime adds 1.0 and a shootout 0.8. That number earns stars at 5.5, 7.5 and 9.5. One more star comes from a two-goal comeback, an upset (a favourite priced at 60% or more lost) or two lead changes, and one more from a goal from the 55th minute or overtime in a game decided by one goal or level. Four or five stars is worth it, three is maybe, one or two is skip. A one-sided finish caps the verdict at maybe, so a late flurry cannot turn a rout into a recommendation.

What it never does

No match is ranked against another after the fact, and no result is printed outside the disclosure on its page. The weights were set by hand and are revised against notes on games actually watched; the numbers above are the current version.

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