How the score works: NFL

Every game in the NFL gets a number from 0 to 100 before it starts, from seven inputs in six weighted terms. It becomes a pick at 40. Afterwards a spoiler-free verdict says whether it was worth watching. The numbers on this page are read from the configuration the pipeline runs on. The wording around them is written by hand, so if the two disagree, the numbers are right and we want to hear about it.

The six terms

Closeness

The win probability comes from the point spread: final margins land within about 13.5 points of the line in two games out of three, and that turns the line into a probability. When there is a moneyline instead, its two prices are used with the bookmaker's margin removed. Before any line exists, the difference between the two teams' power ratings stands in for the spread, with home field worth 2.5 points. Closeness is 4p(1−p). A coin flip scores 1, a 90% favourite 0.36.

Quality

Each team's power rating is mapped onto 0 to 1 between −10 and 10, roughly the weakest and strongest sides in the NFL. Quality is 60% the average of the two and 40% the weaker team, so a mismatch is pulled down by its weak link.

Stakes

Stakes are 45% the two teams' power-rating ranks in tiers (top four, eight, twelve, sixteen), 35% their playoff probability, 10% a division or conference game, and 10% how deep into the season it is.

Rivalry

Rivalry is a hand-kept table of 31 pairs in the NFL. Each pair has a weight between 0.3 and 1.5: we call 1.5 marquee, 1.0 to 1.4 established and anything lower minor (2 marquee, 17 minor). The signal is the weight divided by 1.5, so a marquee rivalry scores 1 and a 0.5 rivalry a third. See the map and tell us what is missing.

Pace

Pace is the over/under total mapped from 40 points (0) to 70 (1); with no line, 0.5.

Form and spice

Form is the share of points from each team's last five, averaged. Upset spice is 1 when a top-ten team by power rating is favoured but priced under 75%, half when the underdog is top ten, else 0.

The verdict

After the game the verdict comes from the win-probability chart: how much it swung, how often the lead changed, and how late it was still in doubt, with the fourth quarter weighted up. That excitement number earns one to five stars: one star, plus one at 3, 5 and 7, plus one for a comeback from under 10% or an upset, plus one for overtime or a close finish. Four or five stars is worth it, three is maybe, one or two is skip.

Without a chart, a cautious number comes from a published excitement index or, failing that, the final score. The verdict then carries the mark score only.

What it never does

No game is ranked against another after the fact, and no result is printed outside the disclosure on its page. The weights were set by hand and are revised against notes on games actually watched; the numbers above are the current version.

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